# Prediction Markets

Every Kalshi and Polymarket market unified into a single probability time series. Trade-level data, hourly price history, and resolution outcomes.

## The market-implied probability layer for macro, equity, and event-driven research.

Surveys give you a median. Options give you a hedge. Prediction markets give you a full probability distribution across every rate outcome, earnings threshold, and policy scenario. Updated hourly, from traders with real capital at risk.

## History

- **3+ YEARS**
- **Notional volume**: ~$170B
- **Unified schema**: 2 VENUES → 1
- **Candlestick prices**: HOURLY

## Weekly Notional Volume by Venue

## Who this is for

### Macro and rates desks

Kalshi rate markets give you a full probability distribution across Federal Reserve outcome levels, not a single consensus point. Track how the distribution shifts hour by hour ahead of Federal Reserve meetings, inflation releases, and jobs reports. Covers every meeting since June 2021.

### Equity research and event-driven

Corporate target markets, equity benchmark close distributions, and political signals for sector rotation. Use implied ranges as a prior when sizing ahead of catalysts. Strongest coverage on large-cap, high-profile events.

### Quant and systematic researchers

Every resolved Kalshi market is labeled ground truth: known outcome, hourly probability path from open to settlement. Per-fill Polymarket data supports market-impact modeling and wallet-level smart-money studies.

### Crypto research firms

Polymarket wallet attribution is joinable to every decentralized exchange, token, and wallet-label dataset in Dune in one SQL query. Token threshold and ETF approval markets act as signals for crypto-exposed equities.

## Key features (Updated May '26)

| Feature                                      | Dune                            | Competitor avg.      | DIY (APIs + feeds)                 |
|----------------------------------------------|---------------------------------|----------------------|------------------------------------|
| Time to first insight                        | Minutes                         | Hours to days        | 3-6 months                         |
| Polymarket + Kalshi unified schema          |                                 |                      | 4-8 weeks to unify                 |
| Unified market categories across venues      | One taxonomy, both venues in one filter |                   | Build yourself                      |
| Consistent Yes/No direction across venues    | Normalized for apples-to-apples comparison | | Build yourself                      |
| Hourly candlestick prices                    | Hourly bars, updated daily     | Daily only           | Polymarket: compute from order book ticks · Kalshi: 7,000+ API calls at 100 rows per page |
| User positions + resolution outcomes         | Polymarket: wallet-level · Kalshi: market-level | Polymarket only     | Not in standard feeds · API-only · no Kalshi user positions |
| Positions + address labelling                 | Polymarket · Kalshi not applicable offchain | Partial             | Build own Polygon indexer          |
| Per-fill fee amount                          |                                 |                      | Not available in standard feeds    |
| Composable with exchange, token, and wallet data |                               |                      | Cross-warehouse exercise           |
| Vendor absorbs schema upgrades               |                                 |                      | Your team rewrites on every venue change |

## What you can research by category

| Category   | What the markets cover   | Signal use case   |
|------------|--------------------------|--------------------|
| Finance    | Federal Reserve rate decisions, inflation prints, jobs reports, equity strikes, S&P 500 inclusions, earnings outcomes, M&A probability | Macro desk<br>Equity research<br>Quant<br>Read the full distribution of outcomes. |
| Politics   | Elections, tariffs, trade policy | Macro desk<br>Equity research<br>Signals for sector rotation.  |
| Crypto     | Token price thresholds, exchange decisions | Crypto research<br>Signals for crypto-exposed equities.  |
| Technology | AI model releases, antitrust decisions | Equity research<br>Single-name signals. |
| World      | Geopolitical events, trade decisions | Macro desk<br>Equity research<br>Signals for commodity-exposed names. |

## Data collection details

### What is a prediction market?

A prediction market is a contract that resolves to $1 if an event occurs and $0 if it doesn't. The price at any moment is the implied probability of that outcome, set by participants trading with real capital. Dune surfaces these prices as a continuous hourly series alongside per-fill trades and resolved outcomes.

### What's the difference between the Polymarket and Kalshi data?

- **Polymarket**: An onchain CLOB on Polygon (coverage starts Nov 2022).
- **Kalshi**: An off-chain venue with a traditional account structure (coverage starts June 2021).

### How fresh is the data?

All tables (trades, hourly prices, market details) are refreshed daily for both venues.

### Can I backtest signals against historical data?

Yes. Every resolved market in the dataset carries its final outcome, making the full history usable for signal validation.

### How to access the data

Three ways to query and integrate prediction markets data:

| Capability     | Delivery                   | Best for                                   | API limits                 |
|----------------|----------------------------|--------------------------------------------|----------------------------|
| Datashare      | Sync to your warehouse     | Snowflake, Databricks, BigQuery           | No API limits              |
| Dune Datahub   | Query in Dune SQL editor   | Dashboards, templates, API export           | Dune query limits apply    |
| MCP            | Model Context Protocol     | AI agents, automation, LLM workflows      | Agent workflow limits apply |

## Go deeper on prediction markets

[Read Prediction Markets: The Next Frontier of Financial Markets](https://dune.com/blog/prediction-markets-the-next-frontier-of-financial-markets)