Overview | Prediction Markets | Dune
Prediction Markets
Every Kalshi and Polymarket market unified into a single probability time series. Trade-level data, hourly price history, and resolution outcomes.
The market-implied probability layer for macro, equity, and event-driven research.
Surveys give you a median. Options give you a hedge. Prediction markets give you a full probability distribution across every rate outcome, earnings threshold, and policy scenario. Updated hourly, from traders with real capital at risk.
History
- 3+ YEARS
- Notional volume: ~$170B
- Unified schema: 2 VENUES → 1
- Candlestick prices: HOURLY
Weekly Notional Volume by Venue
Who this is for
Macro and rates desks
Kalshi rate markets give you a full probability distribution across Federal Reserve outcome levels, not a single consensus point. Track how the distribution shifts hour by hour ahead of Federal Reserve meetings, inflation releases, and jobs reports. Covers every meeting since June 2021.
Equity research and event-driven
Corporate target markets, equity benchmark close distributions, and political signals for sector rotation. Use implied ranges as a prior when sizing ahead of catalysts. Strongest coverage on large-cap, high-profile events.
Quant and systematic researchers
Every resolved Kalshi market is labeled ground truth: known outcome, hourly probability path from open to settlement. Per-fill Polymarket data supports market-impact modeling and wallet-level smart-money studies.
Crypto research firms
Polymarket wallet attribution is joinable to every decentralized exchange, token, and wallet-label dataset in Dune in one SQL query. Token threshold and ETF approval markets act as signals for crypto-exposed equities.
Key features (Updated May '26)
| Feature | Dune | Competitor avg. | DIY (APIs + feeds) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Time to first insight | Minutes | Hours to days | 3-6 months |
| Polymarket + Kalshi unified schema | 4-8 weeks to unify | ||
| Unified market categories across venues | One taxonomy, both venues in one filter | Build yourself | |
| Consistent Yes/No direction across venues | Normalized for apples-to-apples comparison | Build yourself | |
| Hourly candlestick prices | Hourly bars, updated daily | Daily only | Polymarket: compute from order book ticks · Kalshi: 7,000+ API calls at 100 rows per page |
| User positions + resolution outcomes | Polymarket: wallet-level · Kalshi: market-level | Polymarket only | Not in standard feeds · API-only · no Kalshi user positions |
| Positions + address labelling | Polymarket · Kalshi not applicable offchain | Partial | Build own Polygon indexer |
| Per-fill fee amount | Not available in standard feeds | ||
| Composable with exchange, token, and wallet data | Cross-warehouse exercise | ||
| Vendor absorbs schema upgrades | Your team rewrites on every venue change |
What you can research by category
| Category | What the markets cover | Signal use case |
|---|---|---|
| Finance | Federal Reserve rate decisions, inflation prints, jobs reports, equity strikes, S&P 500 inclusions, earnings outcomes, M&A probability | Macro desk Equity research Quant Read the full distribution of outcomes. |
| Politics | Elections, tariffs, trade policy | Macro desk Equity research Signals for sector rotation. |
| Crypto | Token price thresholds, exchange decisions | Crypto research Signals for crypto-exposed equities. |
| Technology | AI model releases, antitrust decisions | Equity research Single-name signals. |
| World | Geopolitical events, trade decisions | Macro desk Equity research Signals for commodity-exposed names. |
Data collection details
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market is a contract that resolves to $1 if an event occurs and $0 if it doesn't. The price at any moment is the implied probability of that outcome, set by participants trading with real capital. Dune surfaces these prices as a continuous hourly series alongside per-fill trades and resolved outcomes.
What's the difference between the Polymarket and Kalshi data?
- Polymarket: An onchain CLOB on Polygon (coverage starts Nov 2022).
- Kalshi: An off-chain venue with a traditional account structure (coverage starts June 2021).
How fresh is the data?
All tables (trades, hourly prices, market details) are refreshed daily for both venues.
Can I backtest signals against historical data?
Yes. Every resolved market in the dataset carries its final outcome, making the full history usable for signal validation.
How to access the data
Three ways to query and integrate prediction markets data:
| Capability | Delivery | Best for | API limits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Datashare | Sync to your warehouse | Snowflake, Databricks, BigQuery | No API limits |
| Dune Datahub | Query in Dune SQL editor | Dashboards, templates, API export | Dune query limits apply |
| MCP | Model Context Protocol | AI agents, automation, LLM workflows | Agent workflow limits apply |
Go deeper on prediction markets
Read Prediction Markets: The Next Frontier of Financial Markets